Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Quamrul H. Ashraf
Author-Name: David N. Weil
Author-Name: Joshua Wilde
Title: The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth
Abstract: We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per
 capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size
 and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into
 child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources.  The model is parameterized
 using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural
 resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative
 macroeconomic theory.  We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in
 fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection, using Nigerian
 vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change
 would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9
 percent at a horizon of 50 years.
Creation-Date: 2012-10
Classification-JEL: E17, J11, J13, J18, J21, J22, J24, O11, O13, O55
Keywords: Fertility, Population size, Age structure, Child quality, Worker experience,
Number: 43
Handle: RePEc:glh:wpfacu:43
File-Url: https://growthlab.hks.harvard.edu/sites/projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/growthlab/files/cid_working_paper_251.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf